North Korea – a question of priorities?
Whilst the eyes of the
world watch with concern the developments in the
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,
we’ve taken the opportunity to look for
ourselves at this inscrutable nation. From our
perspective as those interested in the world energy
scene, we wanted to try and understand something of
the situation there against the backdrop of the
many news reports about illegal nuclear tests and
apparent non-compliance with agreements that could
ultimately benefit North Korea’s
welfare.
As we consider the example of North Korea we hope also to evaluate the promise of economic development, ‘the market’, to overcome political disharmony. So this month our article takes on something of a philosophical turn.
A note on factual integrity:
Whilst researching this article we’ve taken every care to double-check our sources of information but clearly, whilst there is a large amount of material available, much is unknown or unproven. Consequently we offer this as a reflection and a reasonable account but cannot guarantee the accuracy of all the information.A very brief history:
It’s important to take a quick look at the history of Korea. The modern situation springs from the war between North and South Korea that began in 1950 and is technically still happening since no peace treaty was ever signed, merely the signing of an armistice in 1953 (on 27th May this year, North Korea withdrew unilaterally from this armistice agreement thus intensifying the sense of international unrest). In 1950, attempts were being made to reunify the divided country peacefully after Russian and American occupation at the end of the Second World War, but negotiations collapsed when North Korea invaded the South. Nations allied with the US to support South Korea under the banner of the United Nations and retaliated with a partially successful counterattack. This however escalated the hostility as Chinese forces allied to North Korea intervened pushing back the advance and restoring the boundary approximately to its previous position often referred to as the 38th parallel, the positions held following the 1953 armistice.No love lost here! North Korea continues to show open hostility to the US, even featuring their desire to drive the Americans out of Korea on their postage stamps.
Modern-day North Korea is considered by many to be a totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il, the son of the late president Kim Il-Sung. The two Kims have developed an ideology known as Juche (pronounced joo-chay) based on a model of self-reliance. Juche can be seen as a key driver in North Korea policy, including its maintenance of the Korean People’s Army, apparently the fifth largest in the world with 1.2 million armed personnel, and major investments in energy generation capacity in order to reduce reliance on other nations.
The Juche Tower in Pyongyang stands in tribute to Kim Il-Sung and as a symbol of his regime.
The Reunification Monument clearly expresses the desire for one Korean nation, whilst the road between could perhaps be seen as a long one to travel before North Korea’s dreams are realised.
Self-reliance and energy
History paints a very encouraging picture of the early days of ‘Juche’, in fact after the Korean War, North Korea rose to pre-eminence as an energy producer. It provided more than 90% of the electricity to the entire peninsular, building on its abundant hydropower resources and indigenous coal supply. Investment continued into the 1990s as many new power plants were built both hydro and thermal.
However, North Korea has no oil or gas, and contrary to the vision of self-reliance, was dependent at this time on imports from China, Russia and the US. Up until the early 1990s deliveries from China and Russia were heavily subsidised being bought at ‘friendship prices’, but after the break up of the Soviet Union, market prices were introduced causing massive hardship. Indeed during 1995-98 3 million North Koreans are estimated to have died due to freak flooding and food shortages. Despite the potential to provide adequate power for North Korea, the system is now in an inefficient and poorly maintained condition operating at less than 50% of capacity and falling far short of the country’s demand. A key issue is the availability and quality of coal supplies. Recoverable coal reserves are forecast to be depleted within ten years and much that is left is of poor quality. Having formerly provided as much as 86% of the country’s primary energy up to 2001, coal now seems to provide only 35%, leading to major energy supply problems.
The NASA night photograph below, gives an
indication of just how the supply failure now
affects the country. With the Chinese and Russian
lights to the north and the power use of South
Korea clearly framing the dark space that is North
Korea.
The following extract from the Korean Central
News Agency appears to illustrate the
people’s will to work together in the true
spirit of ‘juche’, but perhaps
indicates too the underlying problems of lack of
investment and funding for such projects.
True to the behests of the President, the
people of North Phyongan Province successfully
carried out the gigantic project in a few years
with their own efforts and technology.
At the final stage of the dam project, the dam was
exposed to danger owing to the long-spell of rain.
Then, the Youth Brigade members and working people
of Nyongbyon County devotedly saved the dam from
the torrential water by carrying earth-packed bags
on their backs, thus making a decisive breakthrough
in the construction of the power station.
North Korea’s energy future
Coal may be running out, but there is one energy resource that North Korea has in abundance: Uranium. One commentator suggests that if North Korea had a nuclear power generation capacity of 6 GW then the known uranium would supply such a system for about 250 years. However, this resource potentially offers both a solution and a distraction. North Korea commissioned its own Experimental Power Reactor in 1985 at Yongbyon. However, the plant is small, producing only 5MW of electricity, and seems to have been designed more for producing plutonium than useful electricity. In 1994 the USA was party to an international agreement with North Korea which offered assistance in building nuclear power plants as a carrot to head off the production of weapons-grade plutonium from Yongbyon. Under the auspices of the Korean Energy Development Organisation (KEDO), South Korean utility KEPCO offered assistance building light water reactors for nuclear power generation. However, in April 2003 North Korea withdrew from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. KEDO consequently suspended construction of the mostly complete reactors. North Korea detonated a nuclear device in 2006, following which the KEDO board voted to terminate itself. Under international pressure North Korea agreed to shut down the Yongbyon facility within 60 days in February 2007, and accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring of this, in return for assistance in energy supply. However, in May 2009 North Korea detonated another device, apparently with more success than in 2006. The situation remains highly uncertain.The difficulties ensuing from such a situation are manifold. Whilst aid is available, and potential providers of this are in some senses being driven by North Korea’s desire to be a nuclear power, the country’s very substance looks to its own resources and ‘people-power’ to solve the problems. Aid will only come wrapped in treaties and agreements. Sensitive diplomatic manoeuvrings will equally look for safe solutions demanding a shift in thinking on the part of the North Koreans.
The futuristic Pyongyang Arena stands in marked contrast to pictures painted by many written commentaries.
What happens next?
Whilst we are still unsure of what will be the outcomes of the current situation, there are signs of hope for a peaceful result. North Korea’s greatest public event the two-month long Arirang Festival, featuring around 100,000 gymnasts and other performers. In 2005, tableaux featured gory scenes with North Korea’s armies happily beating-up their enemies. The 2009 festival scenes showed by contrast, scenes of rebuilding and crop planting. With this in mind Bradley K Martin, reporting for Bloomberg, offered this thought:While North Korea is hardly going pacifist seven months after testing an atomic device, the propaganda shift may signal a significant change in policy, according to expatriate businessmen living in the isolated country. Now that it is a nuclear power, North Korea appears to be directing more resources to improving an economy on its knees after decades of sanctions and isolation, they say.
