Last month, as a moderately cold snap hit Europe, gas prices soared, with Heren reporting trades up to £1.70/therm (84euro/MWh or $29/MMBtu) for day-ahead gas on the 22^nd November. All this occurred despite gas demand being at moderate level of 359 mcm on the day, way short of the UK gas demand record of 449 mcm on the 7^th January 2003, and even shorter of a peak day demand forecast, which is above 500 mcm. With potentially the coldest months still to come and January gas trading at nearly 90p/therm, many questions are being asked about what would happen if cold weather really hit. This article provides an overview of the current situation and what would happen in an emergency where the system is in immediate danger due to a gas deficit. January’s Mzine will consider in more detail the Safety Monitor regime, the impact of a Safety Monitors Breach emergency, and the likelihood of an emergency through the rest of the winter.

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mWELCOME

Hello and welcome to the December issue of MZINE, our free monthly e-newsletter.  

Sorry that the November issue never materialised, moving office and overseeing the new building work took up much more of my time than anticipated, but we are now in and fully operational! If you would like to see the process then click here.

This month we will looking at the UK gas supply deficit and how that might effect both the UK and Europe see MSTORY for our main article. MPRICES  looks at the spot Oil Forward Curve, whilst at MPHASIS Derek has invented a new source of renewable energy! Don't forget to check out our thought of the month at MPATHY, and our latest list of training courses at MTRAIN. 

Please feel free to contact me about this newsletter and let me have your thoughts, what you like and don't like, I am open to your suggestions.

And if you have enjoyed reading this newsletter and think you know someone who might also enjoy it then feel free to forward it on.

Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Paul Cassar
Editor

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mTRAIN

All of our training courses can now earn, participating solicitors, CPD points from the law society. Attendance at any of our events may also contribute to meeting accountancy CPD requirements under the terms of the ICAEW’s CPD policy. Please visit www.icaew.co.uk/cpd for the ICAEW's CPD policy details.

Over the next few months the following one-day events are being held in Oxford, UK and London, UK. 

More information about these courses can be found by clicking on the course title or visiting energytrainingnetwork.com and clicking on public courses. Alternatively you can contact me by email or phone +44 (0) 1235 553917, fax +44 (0) 1235 553917.

Any of our public courses can be held at your location, for your company, or they can be tailor made to your requirements. If you want to find out more contact our Training Manager Nick White nick@mjmenergy.com +44(0) 1235 211161 and get ahead of the rest.

OTHER DATES

Tuesday 31st January 2006

Institute of Directors, Pall Mall, London

More information download pdf

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The European Autumn Gas Conference  

The Excel Centre at Royal Victoria Dock in London provided the location for the 20^th  European Autumn Gas  Conference where mjm energy enjoyed offering a presence in the shape of Derek West and Nick White. Delegates gathered from all sectors of the industry and many countries to hear presentations and network. The main theme covered included the growth of gas as the fuel of choice for power generation and the expansion of LNG. This confidence building exercise was warmly received by most, although there were a few refreshing diversions from those with tangential views such as Stefan Judisch, MD at RWE Trading GmbH, who presented his thoughts on coal being the best primary power supply choice and the need to invest in coal-fired generation. Perhaps this view is equally unsurprising coming from RWE. The conference was enlivened by an electronic voting system, which gave delegates the opportunity to vote on key issues. Interestingly, despite the focus on LNG, well over half of the delegates voted that more pipeline interconnectors were the most important infrastructure links required, with LNG polling less than 20%.

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mPRICES
Forward Oil Curve

THE FORWARD CURVE

Weak demand growth and rising crude supply are depressing the front end of the curve, adding to market uncertainty over next year. US product stocks look more comfortable after a surge in imports helped to replace lost output following refinery shutdowns on the Gulf Coast . Now refineries are coming back on stream and product supply is rising, easing concerns about shortages this winter, but middle distillate markets are tight as much colder weather looks set to boost demand. Heating oil crack spreads remain unusually wide, encouraging refiners to maximise distillate output.

Longer-term prices for 2007 and beyond are still being supported by bullish forecasts for the global economy and concerns about under-investment by the oil industry, especially downstream. Although the market looks well supplied in the short-term, rising demand for transport fuels is expected to keep refiners stretched in the future. Calendar 2006 WTI is just under $59/bbl – equivalent to $57/bbl for Brent and $52/bbl for the new OPEC basket of crudes.

CGES Monthly Oil Report, 21 November 2005 www.cges.co.uk

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mPHASIS!
for the lighter side of life!

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mPATHY
thought of the month

Ring out, wild bells, to the wild sky,

The flying cloud, the frosty light:

The year is dying in the night;

Ring out, wild bells, and let him die.

Ring out the old, ring in the new,

Ring, happy bells, across the snow:

The year is going, let him go;

Ring out the false, ring in the true.  

Tennyson                                                                top

mOFFERS
this month's exciting offers!

As a special thank you to all our readers we would like to offer you this free Conversion chart which you can print off and carry with you wherever you go.

Download pdf

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mFEATURE

UK energy minister outlines key questions for Energy Review

UK energy minister Malcolm Wicks has warned that up to 80% of the UK ’s gas supply could be derived from non- UK sources if the government’s Energy Review, due to be published next summer, does not address key issues of energy security.

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Record high prices wipe 30 Mm3 off UK gas demand

High gas prices have forced British industry to rein in gas consumption, by around 30 million cubic metres, network operator National Grid announced on Friday. Speaking at a seminar hosted by Britain ’s energy regulator Ofgem, National Grid said November’s cold snap was met by a significant demand-side response, particularly in the power sector.

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