Oil prices remain highly volatile at the start of 2005, reflecting uncertainty about future supply and demand trends. Tighter supply and colder weather are supporting higher prices this quarter. But can this continue?

The prospects for oil prices this year look increasingly uncertain. Fears that supply was running ahead of demand this winter now look unfounded as WTI prices bounce back towards $50/bl. And Opec may be having second thoughts about its plan to cut output. Like last year, the future could turn out to be very different from the picture painted by forecasters.

more on this story

mWELCOME

Hello and welcome to the second issue of MZINE, our free monthly newsletter. This issue is titled The OIL ISSUE, prompted by those of you who wrote and asked for it. We take a  look at the reasons behind the current high prices and the prospects for this year. See MSTORY for the full story. MPRICES take a look at the Oil Forward Curve and we have more humor at MPHASIS as well as a new heart searching thought of the month at MPATHY.

Any thoughts that you would like to share, articles burning away inside you, or suggestions about this newsletter, email me. paul@mjmenergy.com

If you enjoy reading this newsletter and think you know someone who might also enjoy it then feel free to forward it on.

Kind regards

Paul Cassar
Editor
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mTRAIN

The table below shows the training courses coming up over the next three months. All are in Oxford, England, apart from the 7th -11th March, where we will be making a return visit to Aberdeen, Scotland. For more information and/or to book your place, please click on the course title or contact me by email or phone +44 (0) 1865 395826, fax +44 (0) 1865 395959

OTHER DATES

LNG Terminals 22^nd – 23^rd February Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel, Singapore

Course Review

Course review: Global Oil Market

In the week of elections in Iraq, it is apparent that access to, and prices of, oil supplies remains one of the most important economic and political issues in the current age. MJMEnergy Training Network’s Global Oil Market one-day seminar provides an overview of the diverse mixture of physical, economic and political forces that shape the oil market.

Read the rest of this review

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mPRICES
FORWARD OIL CURVE

Stronger demand and non-OPEC supply problems are providing support for oil prices after sharp falls late last year. US heating oil stocks remain on the low side despite record distillate production over the past month and the weather is now turning cold. Crude oil stocks seem adequate as refiners begin spring turnaround, but crude cover is still at historically low levels. Gasoline stocks, though, are now well above the normal range after a period of high through puts to boost distillate output.  

OPEC’s fears that the market was over-supplied now seem premature. The US economy remains strong and demand held up well last quarter. At the same time, non-OPEC supply is much lower than expected, taking the pressure off OPEC to reduce output. Nearby WTI has recovered to around $47/bbl and longer-term WTI prices are above $40/ bbl until the end of 2007.The balance of Calendar 2005 WTI is close to $46/bbl – equivalent to just over $43/bbl for Brent and around $40/bbl for the OPEC basket of crudes.

Reproduced from CGES Monthly Oil Report with kind permission of CGES. www.cges.co.uk

mPHASIS!
for the lighter side of life!

In few industries do statisticians have to behave like spies, but those charged with collecting data on oil supplies have to rely on secret networks of informers in terminals around the world, who monitor tanker timetables and scrutinise shipping movements to report on changes in import and export volumes.

Secret and unreliable world of oil statistics, Kevin Morrison, Financial Times, 15 December 2004.
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mPATHY
thought of the month!

I felt as if I were walking with destiny, and that all my past life had been but a preparation for this hour and for this trial – Winston Churchhill

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mOFFERS
this month's exciting offers!

This month we can offer you The Oil Trading Manual, edited by David Long and published by Woodhead Publishing, at a reduced price of £675 + shipping. This offer is only valid until 28th February then the price returns to £745 + shipping.

For 2005 we have produced a high quality A2 year planner detailing all of our training courses as well as space for you to mark those other important events. There is also other useful information such as a conversion chart relevant to the energy industry and netconnections, a list of web addresses at your fingertips. To receive one, please send me an email with your postal address and I will send you one with our compliments.

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mFEATURE

The Oil Trading Manual

A comprehensive guide to the oil markets

Edited by David Long

Click here to buy this report

• Physical characteristics and refining
• Oil pricing arrangements
• Physical oil markets
• Forward and futures contracts
• Options and swaps
• Operations and logistics
• Accounting and taxation
• Controlling financial risk
• Legal and regulatory control 

To read the rest of this summary click here

Copyright © 2005, MJMENERGY LTD. All rights reserved (but feel free to copy, post, quote, think about or forward on)